Professionals with Flavor

Executive Snapshot

Markets continue to oscillate within well-defined ranges, masking elevated underlying risk beneath seemingly calm surfaces. Volatility compression remains selective, not systemic. This is not a week for bravado — it’s a week for patience, structure, and disciplined exposure.

Across rates, energy, metals, and grains, price action is increasingly range-defined, while macro catalysts stack tightly into the back half of the week. Our posture remains unchanged: selective exposure only, no risk-seeking behavior.

Interest Rates & Macro

10Y Treasury Yield Context

Yields opened the week under pressure, dipping toward 4.15%, before reversing higher and settling back near 4.20% — a level that has effectively become the market’s gravitational center.

This marked the 14th out of the last 15 sessions where yields closed within the 4.20–4.30% corridor, reinforcing that despite daily noise, the broader regime remains range-bound.

• Early downside pressure stemmed from softer labor signals and a risk-off bid into duration.
• The rebound reflected stabilizing equity sentiment and continued supply absorption.
• CME Group’s CVOL index shows lower day-to-day volatility, but week-over-week risk remains elevated.

Looking ahead, the calendar tightens materially: rescheduled labor data mid-week, CPI on Friday, and heavy Treasury supply via 3Y, 10Y, and 30Y auctions.

Energy

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude continues to trade constructively but contained, holding near 63’75 and respecting a two-week range between 62’00 and 65’40.

• Support came from firmer equity markets and stable U.S. consumer sentiment.
• Despite being off short-term highs, crude remains elevated relative to late-2025 levels.
• Momentum through early 2026 remains intact, but directional conviction is absent.

Natural Gas pulled back ~2.5%, retracing after a three-day rally. Recent volatility appears to be stabilizing as the market recalibrates demand expectations.

Metals

Grains

Grain markets ended the week mixed, with soybeans quietly leading.

• Soybeans settled at 1,115’2, up 0.51% on the week, supported by chatter around potential Chinese demand.
• Export data, however, remained soft — enthusiasm outpaced confirmation.
• Corn held firmer at 430’2.
• Chicago Wheat slipped 5.5 cents, snapping a four-week winning streak.

Brazil remains a wildcard: potential 14MM metric tons of Jan–Feb soybean exports, with farmer selling constrained by currency strength and freight costs.

What We’re Watching Next

This is a data-dense, liquidity-sensitive week — expect volatility to cluster around release windows.

• Retail Sales & CPI: Inflation optics remain pivotal — not just direction, but dispersion.
• Energy Inventories (API & EIA): Confirmation vs contradiction of recent stabilization.
• Labor Data: Markets are hypersensitive to second-order labor signals.
• Treasury Auctions: Demand quality matters more than yield levels.

Risk Posture

Professionals with Flavor — Closing Thought

In environments like this, performance doesn’t come from prediction — it comes from process.

Emerging traders and niche specialists often outperform here not because they “know more,” but because they:

• Respect ranges
• Scale risk deliberately
• Trade structure instead of opinion

That discipline is what separates participation from performance.